Forecasting IV

Another way to forecast worst case in Capsim is to use prior year market share to estimate sales

It is somewhat similar to Worst case forecasting in the previous method, however, you are using market share percentage plus segment growth as your worst case.

With this method, you assume that your market share will not grow in the following round.

Look at page 10 of the Capsim Courier. Here you will see market share for every product. For each of your products, note the actual market share. In my example below, Aft product sold in 2 segments, Performance (17.3%) and also sold a few in High (4.4%) Added, they total 21.7%. However, if you will notice, this is not the same number that the spreadsheet calculated in the cell for Aft’s actual market share. Why?

The reason is that 4.4% demand of the High market is 27. If we look at a similar 4.4% share of the Performance market, we see that it is 37, a difference of 10 units. The Capsim Courier market share rounds to 1 decimal, so there’s a small margin of error. You can either add the percentages and use it for your market share or you can create additional lines on your spreadsheet to calculate market share for each segment that your product has sales.

This is important to know if you have products that exist within the perceptional map of 2 segments. My Aft sensor was in the Performance fine cut, and also existed in the High-end rough cut.

Market Share Estimated Sales is what you’ll use for Worst Case in the Marketing page.

Always do an analysis of your competition: Based on your analysis, you may need to adjust accordingly.

My Sample Spreadsheet:

Sector	Product	Industry Unit Demand	Sold	Inventory	Market Share		Growth Rate	New Industry Unit Demand	Market Share Estimated Sales
Traditional	Able	8809	1262	29	14.3%		9.2%	9619	1453
Low	Acre	11180	2356	21	21.1%		11.7%	12488	2635
High	Adam	3448	845	3	24.5%		16.2%	4007	978
Performance	Aft	2749	627	70	22.8%		19.8%	3293	863
Size	Agape	2776	395	12	14.2%		18.3%	3284	466